Persevere when:
- Cohort retention is flat or improving (the customers who stay, keep staying)
- A specific customer segment is consistently delighted, even if it's smaller than you wanted
- Customer interview language is consistently energetic for the problem (not the solution)
- You're learning something new every month — the iteration loop is fast
Pivot when:
- Retention curves all decay to zero — no segment has PMF
- Customer interview language is polite but flat — no one cares enough
- You've iterated 5+ times on positioning and conversion is still grim
- A specific subset of users does something unexpected — that's the wedge
The most common pivot mistake: pivoting too late. Founders defend the original thesis for 6-9 months past the point the signal is clear. The second most common mistake: pivoting too fast — chasing whichever customer requested the loudest feature.
Make the pivot call in a structured way:
- Write the original thesis on paper
- List what you'd expected by month 12 vs what's true
- List the strongest unexpected signal
- Sleep on it
- Decide explicitly: persevere, pivot, or kill