Software startups go from idea to MVP in months with $50-200k. Climate startups (especially hardware) go from idea to first paying customer in 3-7 years with $5-100M. This isn't slowness — it's the cost of physical reality.
Phases (rough budget):
- Lab proof-of-concept ($500k-$5M, 18-36 months): prove the science works at small scale. Grant funding + university partnerships do most of this work.
- Pilot scale ($5M-$50M, 12-24 months): build the first commercial-grade unit at 1/100 of full scale. First paying customers start here, but unit economics are awful.
- First commercial deployment ($20M-$200M, 12-24 months): build at full commercial scale with one or two anchor customers. Likely loss-making.
- Scale ($50M-$1B+, 3-5+ years): build multiple units, drive down costs via volume + learning curves. Profitability typically at this stage.
The Wright's Law trap: founders model cost reductions assuming each doubling of cumulative production drops cost by 20-25%. Sometimes this works (solar, batteries). Sometimes it doesn't (carbon capture, nuclear). Don't pitch a learning curve you can't justify with comparable cases.
Pure-software climate (carbon accounting, energy management, climate data) is a different shape — looks like normal SaaS but with mission-driven buyers. Plansparency, Watershed, Persefoni are SaaS-shaped. Form Energy, Commonwealth Fusion are hardware-shaped. Your category determines your capital plan.